Maybe it will still happen.
DOW 12,000 by Thanksgiving.
Less than 6% up from today.
That could happen quickly and easily.
November 25, 2010.
A month to go until then.
Somehow I expect the market to drop right after the election. But then it could go up some more.
Anyway, to refine my opinion. I mean that some time before Thanksgiving I expect the DOW to touch 12,000.
If it doesn't, my heart will not break.
And the main reason I am bullish now is that business is good. Profits are going up. Unemployment is actually good for business because it makes it easier to hire good workers at reasonable wages.
And the main reason I am bullish on the long term is that I believe in people. People are creative and adaptable. They can overcome any obstacle. They have a lot of desire. Animal spirits. Progress. Innovation. It's getting better all the time.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Employment Crisis
Hyperbole
Healthy unemployment rate might be 5% to 8%
Now it is 9.6%
so the problem is for only from 4.6% to 1.6% of the labor force.
The problem is not "the economy"
it is individuals who are not very employable.
Those individuals need individual attention.
Just goosing the economy is not going to get them jobs.
But look for good too!
It is good for business if there is a large labor pool.
Keeps down inflation
Keeps profits up
NOT A CRISIS
why must everything be a crisis?
Healthy unemployment rate might be 5% to 8%
Now it is 9.6%
so the problem is for only from 4.6% to 1.6% of the labor force.
The problem is not "the economy"
it is individuals who are not very employable.
Those individuals need individual attention.
Just goosing the economy is not going to get them jobs.
But look for good too!
It is good for business if there is a large labor pool.
Keeps down inflation
Keeps profits up
NOT A CRISIS
why must everything be a crisis?
Friday, October 8, 2010
20% Solution, Community Spirit
Read today how teachers are getting fired because there is not enough money.
How about sharing what money there is?
Works for me.
I could live on less.
I could live on a lot less.
I suspect that is really where most people are. Cut out the luxuries and the non-essentials and we could live well on a lot less.
But we have it set up so that people will not take less. They choose nothing over a cut.
Unemployment for some, rather than lower wages for all.
That is the choice we are making.
Lucky I have my own business.
I can lower my prices as much as needed in order to stay occupied.
If I was not allowed to lower my prices I would probably be out of business.
If everyone would take a 20% cut, then we wouldn't need the layoffs.
How about sharing what money there is?
Works for me.
I could live on less.
I could live on a lot less.
I suspect that is really where most people are. Cut out the luxuries and the non-essentials and we could live well on a lot less.
But we have it set up so that people will not take less. They choose nothing over a cut.
Unemployment for some, rather than lower wages for all.
That is the choice we are making.
Lucky I have my own business.
I can lower my prices as much as needed in order to stay occupied.
If I was not allowed to lower my prices I would probably be out of business.
If everyone would take a 20% cut, then we wouldn't need the layoffs.
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