Recovery or Expansion?

Today I got confused about these terms so I did some research and I have a tentative resolution.

When you talk about recovery you are talking about one thing and when you talk about expansion you are talking about something else.

Recovery and expansion happen at the same time.

Whenever the economy is growing that is called expansion. But when there has just been a recession, as the economy begins to grow, it is called recovery until the economy reaches its previous peak.

Once the previous peak has been surpassed it is no longer called recovery, then it may be called prosperity or something else.

In nominal terms, the economy has already surpassed the previous peak, but when adjusted for inflation, there needs to be about another 2% of growth in order to be considered "recovered."

I am hoping that when all the numbers are in, 2010 will prove to have a larger GDP than any prior year, but it may be close.

Consumer Spending At All Time High

According to the commerce department, personal consumption expenditures are running at an all time high of $10,279,600,000,000.
($10.79 trillion.)
But nobody reports it that way.

Angry Bears Should Cheer Up

News today
2nd quarter GDP revised down
but not as bad as expected

Shouldn't we be glad the economy is not as bad as expected?
The angry bears act like they want a collapse.
Why do they want that?
Are they just mean or have they done a lot of short selling?
Are they just hoping to profit from the pain of other people?

I would like to see happy people and last night I did.
We went down to hear the free music at the Santa Monica Pier.
Two tribute bands, one like the Beatles, the other like Led Zeppelin
Happy crowd
Time to stop being angry and afraid and depressed.
Stop hoping for failure
Wake up to the success all around

Housing Obsession Ending?

Existing home sales down a lot.
That is a good thing.
We have invested too much in houses.
Houses are liabilities. They are expensive to maintain.
Paint, plumbing, roofing, remodeling, property taxes, insurance, utilities, etc.
You do get to live in them. So a need is filled. But we have too many and they are too big and luxurious.
Simple is better.
Our society will do better by investing in productive assets.
The housing industry was bloated by government policies and a real estate mania.
Better that our energy goes elsewhere.

New balance is coming. Rebalancing is painful to some, but not all, and in the long run we will all be better off with less energy going into housing.

Human Population

Imagine our population continues to double, say every 100 years.
In 1,000 years there would be about 5.5 trillion people.
Not so bad
each of us would have 280 square feet of land to support us.
sounds pretty cozy

point being
perpetual growth, even slow growth, is not possible,
we must reach a steady state
population will cease to grow, probably in the near future
governments need to plan for the steady state.
right now our government needs 5% growth to avoid bankruptcy
that is very unrealistic
we need to start living in the real world and forget fantasy land

Take Less Give More

What a concept. The possibility of taking less.
You could give less and take less. Less
They say that less is more.
Looking around I see many addicted to more.
Causes a lot of pain.
Less is OK
Less can even be good.

My business is fine. But when I get a vacant apartment I lower my price. It gets filled fast that way. I can take less. It is OK.
Stubborn people who won't take less. They cause a lot of trouble.

Be willing to take less.
Be happy taking less.
And let some things just fall away.

Truth is
You have more than enough.
You have always had more than enough.

Take A Step Back And See The Truth

Remember that old picture of the whole earth from space.
No borders

One beautiful blue jewel of a planet.

Get some perspective on your own life.
Get some perspective on the life of your community.

Take a step back and see the unity.
All is one.
And it is a beautiful jewel.

A good cosmos

Fairness Yields Peace

Perception is reality.
If people perceive unfairness, then they get upset.
They have minds that find unfairness. But is there any real unfairness in the world?
Most would say, OF COURSE THERE IS UNFAIRNESS!

And thus we do not have peace.

But think it all the way through and you can see the world as totally fair. Then you have peace of mind.
Is it true that the world is totally fair?
Yes, it is the truth.

Nothing to be upset about. The world is totally fair always. It must be.
And we are totally free. Our world is our choice.

Nothing to be angry about.
Fairness leads to peace.
And the world is a fair place. It is all fair. It is all just.
Choose peace!

Business Is Good

Tuesday night we went out to dinner in Cambria, CA.
We went into Linn's. It was crowded. People were waiting. We waited almost 40 minutes for a table for four.
The food was good.
The desserts were wonderful.

Business is good.
40 minute wait on a Tuesday night.

Get Ready For 2% Growth

Somehow we have gotten the idea that the economy can grow at a 3% to 5% rate.
But that rate of growth tends to be inflationary and harmful. We live in such tremendous abundance right now that we could be fine with no growth at all or even with a decline.

But people are addicted to growth. They go crazy if growth does not continually accelerate.

Policymakers need to understand that rapid growth is not going to happen. Policy must be adjusted for an expectation of 2% growth. Depending on higher growth will cause some very bad trouble. I read that the federal deficit increases out of control at less than 4% growth. The feds need to face reality and live more prudently.

Times are good. But living beyond your means always leads to trouble.

There Oughta Be A Law

Too many laws
proliferation of laws
laws nobody knows and nobody understands
laws that need to be tested in court
and one judge says one thing and then another says something else
why do we need so many laws?
they have been making laws for hundreds of years but they always need to be making more
there is always some new crisis or problem and the answer is more law

but we have been trying that for a long time
and apparently it does not work very well

we need a new approach

how about a moratorium on new laws
we should learn to live with the laws we have
could they really be so bad and so in need of change?

Bad Day For Bears

First trading day of August got off with a bang. DOW over 10,600.
I'm still standing by my prediction of DOW 12,000 by Thanksgiving.
Looks pretty easy from here. 350 points a month will do it. Earnings are good. Interest rates are low. The bears should be exhausted.
And the truth is the economy is very good. This is a good economy with slack that can grow easily without shortages and bottlenecks.
Virtuous
Reasonable
Positive
Happy