Dog In The Manger

People often begrudge others what they cannot enjoy themselves.

Photos From Santa Monica

View of beach with Palos Verdes in the distance


Sitting in Palisades Park

CALL OF NEW BULL

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, capping the market’s steepest two-week gain since 1938, as investors speculated the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur growth and investor Mark Mobius said a new bull market has begun.

S&P 500 low 3/9/09 was 676.53. Today closed at 822.92, increase of 21.6%.
This action is just what I have been expecting. It would be really nice to see strong follow through to really wash the shorts out of the market.


Here is what I wrote way back in January
Market has moved up more than 20% from lows. But people refuse to call it a bull market.What gives?Just like the recession.Definitions don't count. It is all fuzzy stuff decided by various shadowy figures.I actually measure a 24% increase in the S&P 500 just looking at closing prices. If you look at absolute highs and lows the move has been 26% from the bottom.What number would be a new bear?S&P 500 close below 747.8 would be a new bear market.Today we closed at 906.65, pretty far above 747.8.A correction could take us to 841
So, the low on 3/9/09 of 676.53 was almost 10% below the old November low. But was it really a new low? Bull and bear markets are coming fast and furious. Up and down 20% every few months. Is this time different?
I hope so.

Around 1916 School Children

school portrait around 1916 in South Dakota
town of Tyndall

Priorities And Triage

Santa Monica Blvd. near Bundy around 1950

Might it be a good idea to balance income and spending?
But if no one borrows what happens to people with money to lend?

Our economy is definitely out of balance. The biggest culprit appears to be government.

Government spending is way out of line with income. This is generally understood to be true.

In real life people must set priorities for the expenditure of time and energy and money etc.

You can't have everything you "want."

That is the new ethic, or old ethic, we must discover or remember.
We can be fine with what we have. But we must set limits on expenditures.
We need really good managers. People who know how to set priorities and work efficiently and economically.

It is really very simple.
"Don't throw good money after bad."

WINNERS AND LOSERS

"Think again of the insured house. Many institutions hold insurance on the house; on the other side are insurance companies and the like making an opposite bet. If the house is destroyed, one group of institutions wins and the other group loses. Considering all institutions together, no money was truly lost — it's what economists call a zero-sum game. In good times, risk hungry banks loved this game, but now they have become risk averse, and the game seems to have changed. So how can many of the banks simultaneously claim enormous swap losses with no bank claiming significant profit?
Here are two possibilities: either the vast majority of all swaps — not just AIG's — are held by investment banks, or a significant portion is held by other financial institutions like hedge funds." Ari J. Officer in Time Magazine

YES WE SHOULD FIND OUT WHO THE WINNERS ARE
YES WE SHOULD REGULATE THIS STUFF
YES NOTHING HAS REALLY BEEN LOST

Usually I am against changing the rules. This time the rules are corrupt and must be changed.

Around Los Angeles

People in front of Grauman's Chinese Theater. 3/14/09



"The Spirit of Los Angeles" Statue at "The Grove"
3/14/09

The Big Truth

God is not against anything.

Everything is fine.
Everything is good.
Very good!

We spring directly from the void.
Nothing causes anything else.
We are free.

All possibilities exist.
It is all spirit. It is all mind.

We are here to enjoy the plenitude.

Frontline Value Use Loss Energy

Once I was told that money is stored energy.
Money has the potential to buy things, to command labor.
People save money for retirement.
You work for money and then you stop working and live on your savings.
If you lose your savings, you will have less to spend in retirement.

What about a house.
You live in a house. The value of the house is that you live in it. How much does it really matter what the price tag on the house is?
It is said that a lot of wealth has been lost because of the decline in house prices. On the other hand a lot of wealth was created when house prices went up rapidly.

What has really been lost?

The houses are still there.

There is also a lot of talk about financial losses.
Those losses are suspect to me.
I believe the money was passed around or redistributed.

If someone bought an asset at a high price, someone else sold it to them. The seller had a gain. It is balanced.

Trading things does not really create wealth. It is an illusion.
You can lose or win, but it balances.

Real gains are like this.....
I plant a seed. It becomes a tree. I invent something useful. It makes life easier. I build something useful. I create something useful. Those are real gains.

From The Front

Went out to dinner last night. Restaurant was full. Saw many new cars in the parking lot.
Good economic news is trickling in. Obama starting to talk more optimistically.
Truth is, things are fantastic.
Opportunities abound.
The good guys are winning now.
The crooks are on the run.

Report From The Front

Really now, business is not like war. That is a crazy metaphor. Business is all about service. Business is about care. Business is about helping.

And I am happy to report that in my small business. In California, In Los Angeles County, In the city of Santa Monica.
MY NET INCOME IS UP FROM LAST YEAR>
In fact it is up a lot. This January and February compared with the same months in 2008 is UP 25%

UP 25%

HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE IN THIS SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION?

Somebody has not been telling the truth about things.

things are not that bad
we are used to lies
lies to get us into wars
lies to get us to do all sorts of things
fear to get us to do all sorts of things

truth is
things are really quite good

FOLLOW THE MONEY

Zachary Karabell on economic punditry

"And while I have always said what I believe, what I believe sometimes has been subtly shaped by who pays the bills."

Disneyland Was Busy

Guess what this is!

It is a picture of Dumbo's tail.
Disneyland was crowded. It was a Saturday. No sign of a recession.
Things are about ready to recover. Let's party.

Bill Mahar Questions Growth Ethic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVWbCNAq1G4

Above is a link to Bill Mahar show 3/6/09. He questions our growth ethic. Why must we always have more?

What we need is better distribution, ethical distribution, and responsible consumption. This requires education and thought and behaving like real human beings, not animals.

How Many?

How many bureaucrats does it take to change a light bulb?

They can’t do it.
It’s not in their job description.

More Of The Different

I still see almost no recession in my business. My business income is up substantially from a year ago.
Last summer I opined that I did not expect a recession because it just didn't feel like one to me.
I remembered 20% interest rates
I remembered the tech bubble and 9/11 on top of it.
I reembered the oil embargo and gas lines and the Nixon impeachment and resignation.
So I just could not see a problem.
Stocks a year ago were not unreasonably overvalued. Interest rates were being cut.
Even now. Things just don't seem as bad as I keep hearing.

So what does it mean?

Things have changed but people are slow to adjust.

The same old stuff doesn't work like it did.

New approach
New way
Most people are still working.

Most people are doing well.
A large minority is doing worse than usual.
But the percentage is still not that big.
Things are really not that bad. That is the truth.

People may feel bad because they lost money in stocks, or their house is worth less, but they weren't using that money. They didn't really need that money, so they invested it.

We still have more than we need.

Reality Is Seldom What We Expect

I still expect the markets to rally.

New lows are happening instead.

But I am still optimistic about the future.

I still expect a massive short covering rally.
I still expect a new bull market.
I even expect new highs in all the indexes!

I can be patient.
I will be patient.