Gold Bear Market?

Gold plunges again and gets very close to the 20% decline from the September top.

Top was September 5, 2011 at $1,900.23 per oz.

20% decline would take the price to $1,520.18.
Right now it is at $1,533.4 and has been lower earlier.

So is this the bear?

breaks out below $1,500 and I would say for sure.
funny thing is
this does not predict the future

this could be the end of the bear
if the bear started in September it would have been going on for 4 months and this could be the end

but I still believe that the cost of production ultimately will determine the price and I hear the cost of production of gold is really down around $500 an oz.
So in that case the price has a long way to fall.

and where has gold come from?

back in 2001 around ten years ago gold traded as low as $277.90 an oz.
am I right in saying that at the top it had gone up almost 800%?
that is a pretty big increase

now if house prices going up 100% is a bubble then what would a rise of 800% be called?
a super bubble?