Abundant Cheap Oil

There is a lot of oil at the bottom of the ocean.
Really deep oil
the entire Pacific ocean has oil under it, not just on the continental shelves
the problem is getting that oil

30 years from now we will be able to extract that oil cheaply
robots will work at great depths
no need for oil rigs at the surface

oil price will drop to under five dollars a barrel

technology will yield cheap oil

One Billion Americans by 2100?

The twentieth century was amazing for population growth and economic growth, which tend to go together.
U.S. population went from 76 million to 281 million. It increased by a factor of 3.7
Will that happen again?
If it does there will be more than one BILLION americans.

Who wants that?

Weirdthink Slowdown Not A Slowdown

"Slowdown Looming but No Double Dip"

What?
If I accelerate to 70 and then stop accelerating would anybody call that a slowdown?

Economic metaphors confuse and conceal reality.
Do economies really expand and contract?
Do they grow? Does growth speed up and slow down?
Do economies slow down?

CESSATION OF ACCELERATION IS NOT SLOWING DOWN

But in the news, if GDP growth slows, that is called a slowdown. It is a slowdown of growth, but not of "the economy."
Nobody would say that cruising at 70 MPH is slowing down.
Why do we always need to accelerate?

What is wrong with cruising along.
Why can't we be contented with a cruising economy?

To call gradual deceleration a slowdown is WEIRDTHINK!

Perpetual growth is impossible. If the economy were to grow at %5 perpetually, then it would double about every 15 years.

At that rate it would be one million times bigger in 300 years.
One million times bigger?
I don't think so.

Can't Plug Leak Too Busy Socializing

People will usually only drop their plans for an emergency like a funeral or a fire.

But sometimes the little things turn into emergencies.

Better to nip it in the bud, better to stay on top of things, put first things first etc.

So where is our attention? Maybe it is OK and maybe not. Maybe our attention is not on the leaks that need to be plugged but somewhere else. Like on ego trips

anyway....
seems to me the president does a lot of socializing
takes eye off ball at ball
party, ceremony, dinner, concert
how can the president really do a good job when there are so many distractions?

and we can all take a lesson from this

less is more

take care of business first
plug the leaks before they become catastrophes.

Disconcerting Corrections

The market has been correcting for a few weeks.
This is normal and healthy.
Investors and players always go to extremes. Too high and then too low and then too high again.

Asset allocation strategy indicates selling on the way up and buying on the way down. This correction is a message to do some buying.

To repeat
This correction is normal and healthy


In fact, it is what must happen. Corrections strengthen markets. They are no cause for despair.
The important thing is for earnings to continue to improve. Earnings are the most important thing. The value of a company is really just the value of earnings plus any real assets such as land.

I believe the correction has already almost run its course. However the road back to new highs will be long and slow. A period of consolidation may last for another six weeks. July looks good.

I still expect DOW 12,000 by Thanksgiving.

Poetry Evolving

I used to enjoy
hearing
angry, crazy, depressed, frustrated poets
telling me how awful the world is
and foretelling doom

but now that I am old and gray
and close to death
close enough to call him a friend

all I can hear is the sound
of little children laughing
and playing
and splashing in the fountain of youth

Geoffrey Francis Morgan Orator Civic Leader Writer

If you take a stroll on the Santa Monica beach you might see this monument to Geoffrey F. Morgan. Who was he? What did he do to deserve this?

For many years he was president of the Shoreline Planning Association of California. He sparked this organization to success in obtaining legislative appropriation of $10 million for beach acquisition. Back then that was a lot of money!

He wrote the words to the Stanford song, "Sons of the Stanford Red."
The Morgan Wixson Theater was named after him.
He was a California Assemblyman.
He wrote librettos for many operettas.
He was a professor of education at Ohio University.
He was a speaker on the circuits of the Redpath Lyceum. He travelled the country lecturing on inspirational subjects. He spoke in all 48 states.

Other posts and memberships:
President of the Santa Monica Theater Guild
Director of the Chamber of Commerce
Member of the Board of Education
Member of the Library Board
Rotary
Dramatists Guild
Actors Equity
Phi Alpha Tau
Tau Kappa Alpha
St. Augustine's Episcopal Church

here is a link to the Morgan Wixson Theater

http://www.morgan-wixson.org/

http://orlabs.oclc.org/identities/lccn-n82-90913