Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
Holiday Outing
Wonderful new moon this evening….
Took Erin to the Long Beach Aquarium today. It was very busy. It was crowded with visitors. We left around 2:30 PM and the parking structure was full.
On the drive down I was struck by all the trucks leaving the harbor. Commerce has not stopped.
Abundance!
I asked how many different species were on exhibit.
I learned that the total number of animals is 12,500 and more than 650 species are represented. Very impressive.
It was a fantastic Los Angeles type of day. Bright sun. Warm. And the traffic on the 405 was not bad.
Took Erin to the Long Beach Aquarium today. It was very busy. It was crowded with visitors. We left around 2:30 PM and the parking structure was full.
On the drive down I was struck by all the trucks leaving the harbor. Commerce has not stopped.
Abundance!
I asked how many different species were on exhibit.
I learned that the total number of animals is 12,500 and more than 650 species are represented. Very impressive.
It was a fantastic Los Angeles type of day. Bright sun. Warm. And the traffic on the 405 was not bad.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
WARREN BUFFETT ADVICE
With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch's 'timeless' predictions.
1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)
AP
The economic downturn takes its toll at the almost-empty Bayshore Town Center Mall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."
3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.
4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"
5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."
6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."
Walt Disney (1950)
Cinderella rushes for the exit as midnight approaches
7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."
1. Recessions can't be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she's young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)
AP
The economic downturn takes its toll at the almost-empty Bayshore Town Center Mall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
2. We'll survive current and future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008): "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."
3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap." Fast-forward to October, 2008, and Buffett's Why I'm Buying U.S. Stocks Now.
4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don’t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"
5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You’re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You’re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don’t have to worry about anybody else."
6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."
Walt Disney (1950)
Cinderella rushes for the exit as midnight approaches
7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history."
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Symbols
Lights
A Tree
Stockings
Carols concerts music
Gifts
Candy
Eggnog
A party
Reunions
Travel
Colors, red and green
Log on the fire
A Tree
Stockings
Carols concerts music
Gifts
Candy
Eggnog
A party
Reunions
Travel
Colors, red and green
Log on the fire
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
SALES INCREASE IN NOVEMBER
By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. fell less than forecast as cheaper gasoline left Americans with more cash, while jobless claims climbed to a 26-year high, signaling purchases will keep sliding into 2009.
Spending dropped 0.6 percent in November, and rose for the first time in six months after accounting for inflation, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. First-time unemployment benefit claims jumped to 586,000, and durable-goods orders declined less than anticipated, other reports showed.
It rose when adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending rose in November.
Sounds like good news.
What's wrong with falling prices?
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. fell less than forecast as cheaper gasoline left Americans with more cash, while jobless claims climbed to a 26-year high, signaling purchases will keep sliding into 2009.
Spending dropped 0.6 percent in November, and rose for the first time in six months after accounting for inflation, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. First-time unemployment benefit claims jumped to 586,000, and durable-goods orders declined less than anticipated, other reports showed.
It rose when adjusted for inflation.
Consumer spending rose in November.
Sounds like good news.
What's wrong with falling prices?
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